Cotton prices fell 15.7% in September, the steepest monthly decline since September 2022, according to a report in the Turkish business daily Ekonomim on 14 October 2026. After climbing as high as $0.9374 per pound in August, cotton ended September at $0.7852. For comparison, the price dropped 24.6% in September 2022.
Even after the sell-off, prices remain elevated on a year-to-date basis. Cotton started 2026 at $0.60 per pound and was up roughly 30% by the end of September. It slipped 1.7% in January, then rose in a volatile pattern over the following months, driven by geopolitical risk and weather-related concerns.
What drove the decline?
Market analysts quoted in the report point to several factors behind the September drop:
- Growth worries: Futures and commodities specialist Zafer Ergezen said expectations that high interest rates will slow economic growth have raised concerns about cotton demand. He noted that the fall coincided with a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and described the move as profit-taking.
- Weak orders and ample supply: Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Capital, said shrinking spinning margins, weak orders and plentiful, competitively priced Brazilian cotton left textile producers reluctant to buy at higher levels.
- Chinese demand: Demand from China fell short of expectations, adding further pressure on prices.
Rabobank analyst Owen Wagner recalled the widely accepted rule of thumb that cotton demand needs around 3% global GDP growth to hold up. With energy prices high, he said international forecasts suggest a meaningful pick-up in demand this year looks unlikely.
The cotton–polyester balance
Oil prices have been a key driver of this year’s rally. According to the analysts, higher prices for oil and petrochemicals made cotton more competitive against synthetic fibres and fuelled expectations that some demand would shift from polyester to cotton. On the supply side, El Niño and weaker monsoon rains in India have weighed on output since the start of the year.
What it means for brands and garment makers
Through yarn and fabric costs, cotton prices feed directly into one of apparel’s main inputs. September’s correction comes from a level that is still high compared with January, and the analysts’ comments suggest demand-side uncertainty is far from over. For sourcing and product teams, a few points stand out:
- clarify which raw-material price period current fabric quotes for cotton products are based on,
- keep an eye on the cotton–polyester price balance and how it affects material planning, particularly in sportswear and blended-fabric ranges,
- read shifts in global demand and growth expectations alongside next season’s order calendar.
This article was summarised and commented on by the LTS Frekans editorial team, drawing on the source article.
